Chapter 5
Transkript
Chapter 5
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECON 304 •2011-2012, SPRING SEMESTER Chapter 5: Poverty, Inequality, and Development Poverty and Development YRD.DOÇ.DR. ÖZGÜR ÖMER ERSİN* *BEYKENT UNIVERSITY- DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Room No: 35 Email: ozgurersin@beykent.edu.tr Tel: 5146 Some Developments in 20th Century Economic Development What can we say about poverty, when we evaluate the PPF below? Gıda D B A C Makine 1. Efficiency in Production (Üretimde etkinliğin sağlanabilmesi, eldeki mümkün tüm kaynakların tam ve maksimum kullanılmasını gerektirir; bu durumda üretim noktası eğri üzerindeki B noktasıdır.) Efficiency in allocation (Dağılımda etkinliğin sağlanabilmesi: üretilmesi istenen mallar arasındaki seçim sonucunda üretim ile ilgili istenmeyen bir fazlalığın ya da eksikliğin olmaması anlamına gelir. Şekildeki C noktasında, üretim kapasitesi etkin olduğu halde, çok fazla miktarda makine üretilip, gıda üretimi yetersiz kalabilmektedir.) Advancement in productive resources (Üretken kaynakların hem nicelik hem de nitelik olarak büyümesi/gelişmesi ise, üretim olanakları eğrisinin, şekilde olduğu gibi dışarıya doğru kayması demektir. Bu durumda gerçekleşen üretim miktarı, örneğin D noktası gibi bir noktada olacaktır. Üretim olanakları eğrisinin dışarıya kayması, ya teknik bir ilerleme ya da girdi olarak kullanılmaya uygun kaynaklardaki artış anlamına gelmektedir.) Problems with the measurement of development in LDC’s Problems in calculating the total production and income Problems in calculating the welfare Other problems: Country comparisons, the quality of national statistics regarding development 5-5 Problems in quality of statistics Problems in collection of data Subsistance economy (geçimlik ekonomi) Kayıtdışı ekonominin varlığı Human Development Index: Calculation 3 pillars: health, education and income 1. Health Average life expectancy: 78 Highest achievable target age : 85 Lowest level of targeted age : 25 (78 – 25)/(85-25) = 0.883 2. Education Adult literacy index : (95.8-0)/(100-0)=0.958 Per capita schooling index : (69-0)/(100-0)=0.69 Total education index : 2/3 (0.958) + 1/3 (0.69) = 0.869 3. GNI INDEX - GSYİH ENDEKSİ [log (8840) – log (100)]/[log (40.000) – log (100)] = 0.748 HDI = 1/3 (0.883) + 1/3 (0.869) + 1/3 (0.748) = 0.883 Human Development Index (HDI) in 2006; accending order Kişi Başına Düşen GSYİH Ülke ABD $ PPP $ Ülke ABD $ PPP $ Lüksemburg 65,630 65,340 Hindistan 720 3,460 Norveç 59,590 40,420 Pakistan 690 2,350 İsviçre 54,930 37,080 Kenya 530 1,170 ABD 43,740 41,950 Bangladeş 470 2,090 Japonya 38,980 31,400 Mali 380 1,000 Türkiye 4,710 8,420 Madagaskar 290 880 Tayland 2,750 8,440 Sierra Leona 220 780 Çin 1,740 6,600 Etiopya 160 1,000 Filipinler 1,300 5,300 Malawi 160 650 Endonezya 1,280 3,720 Burundi 100 640 Kaynak:< http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GNIPC.pdf> Ulusal Yoksulluk Sınırı Altında Yaşayanların Toplam Nüfusa Oranı, % Ülke Anket Tarihi Kırsal Kentsel Toplam Bangladeş 2000 53.0 36.6 49.8 Bolivya 1999 81.7 Kolombiya 1999 7.0 55.0 64.0 Guatemala 2000 74.5 27.1 56.2 Madagaskar 1999 76.7 52.1 71.3 Malawi 1997-1998 66.5 54.9 65.3 Filipinler 1997 56.7 21.5 36.8 Sierra Leona 1989 76.0 53.0 68.9 Etiyopya 1999-2000 45.0 37.0 44.2 Ürdün 1997 Tunus 1995 13.9 3.6 7.6 Mısır 1999-2000 23.3 22.5 16.7 62.7 11.7 Kaynak: Dünya Bankası, World Development Report 2005 A Beter Investment Climate for Everyone, World Bank-Oxford University Press, 2004 Günlük 1 $’ın Altındaki Yoksulların Toplam Nüfustaki Oranı, % Ülke Anket tarihi Bolivya 1999 14 Etiyopya 1999-2000 26.3 Hindistan 1999-2000 34.7 Malawi 1997-1998 41.7 Mali 1994 72.8 Kaynak: Dünya Bankası, World Development Report 2005 A Beter Investment Climate for Everyone, World Bank-Oxford University Pres, 2004 Türkiye’de Mutlak Yoksulluk Oranı, % 2002 2003 2004 Kentsel 21.95 22.30 16.57 Kırsal 34.48 37.13 39.97 Toplam 26.96 28.12 25.60 Kaynak: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=287 Günde 1$’dan daha az gelirle yaşayan nüfus (%) Ücret Farklılıkları En Üst Düzey Yüzde 10’un Ücretinin En Alt Düzeydeki Yüzde 10’un Ücretine Oranı 1970 1980 1990 - 2.5 2.5 ABD 3.2 3.8 4.5 Fransa 3.7 3.2 3.2 İtalya - 2.3 2.5 Japonya - 2.5 2.8 İngiltere 2.5 2.6 3.3 İsveç 2.1 2.0 2.1 Almanya Environmental Income Inequality Nüfus (milyar) NüfusYüzdesi GSMH (milyar $) GSMH Yüzdesi Kişi Başına Gelir, $ 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 I 1.1 1.0 15.6 15.7 25,450 32,245 80.7 80.0 26,510 32,112 II 2.7 3.1 43.8 47.4 5,022 6,863 15.9 17.1 1,860 2,274 III 2.5 2.3 40.6 36.9 1,075 1,187 3.4 2.9 430 507 Toplam 6.16 6.4 100 100 31,647 40,295 100 100 5,120 6,329 I: Yüksek Gelir Grubu Ülkeleri II: Orta Gelir Grubu Ülkeleri III: Düşük Gelir Grubu Ülkeleri Kaynak: http://devdata.worldbank.org/wdi2006/contents/Section1.htm Income distribution inequality Sao Paolo, Brezilya Basic Needs Approach What to produce ? How to produce ? For whom to be produced In what quantities ? What will be the effect of production? Some indicators in the “basic needs approach” Food: kişi başına kalori ya da protein miktarı Education: Okur-yazarlık, ilkokul kayıt oranı Health: Yaşam süresi Cleanness – Hygiene : Toplumun ne kadarının temiz koşullarda yaşadığı ile ilgili oran Water supply and access to drinkable water: Toplumun ne kadarının tremiz ya da kullanılabilir suya erişiminin olduğu Residential indicators: oda başına insan sayısı (?) The Growth Controversy: Seven Critical Questions What is the extent of relative inequality, and how is this related to the extent of poverty? Who are the poor? Who benefits from economic growth? Does rapid growth necessarily cause greater income inequality? Do the poor benefit from growth? Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-21 The Growth Controversy: Seven Critical Questions Are high levels of inequality always bad? What policies can reduce poverty? Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-22 Measuring Inequality and Poverty Measuring Inequality Size distributions (quintiles, deciles) Lorenz curves Gini coefficients Functional distributions Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-23 Table 5.1 Typical Size Distribution of Personal Income in a Developing Country by Income Shares—Quintiles and Deciles Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-24 Figure 5.1 The Lorenz Curve Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-25 Figure 5.2 The Greater the Curvature of the Lorenz Line, the Greater the Relative Degree of Inequality Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-26 Figure 5.3 Estimating the Gini Coefficient Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-27 Figure 5.4 Four Possible Lorenz Curves Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-28 Figure 5.5 Functional Income Distribution in a Market Economy: An Illustration Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-29 Measuring Inequality and Poverty Measuring Absolute Poverty Headcount Index Headcount Index is defined as the percentage of population below the poverty line. 5-30 Total poverty gap TPG = ∑i =1 (Yp − Yi ) H Yp : the absolute poverty line ($1.25) Yi : income of the ith person H: number of people. TPG shows the extent to which the incomes of the poor people lie below the poverty line. It is calculated by adding up the amounts by which each poor persons income Yi falls below the absolute poverty line Yp. 5-31 Figure 5.6 Measuring the Total Poverty Gap Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-32 Measuring Inequality and Poverty Measuring Absolute Poverty Average poverty gap TPG APG = H Where H is number of persons TPG is total poverty gap Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-33 Measuring Inequality and Poverty Measuring Absolute Poverty Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measure Yp − Yi ∑ Yp i =1 Yp: poverty line 1 Pα = N H α Yi: income of the i th person N: number of people in an economy. H: the number of the poor. Alpha: determined by government of a country. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-34 Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measure The FGT measure corresponds to other measures of poverty for particular values of alpha. For , alpha=0, the formula reduces to which is the Headcount ratio. For alpha=1, formula reduces to: which is the average poverty gap. Note: Generally, alpha is taken as 2 by the policy makers. By doing so, the index combines information on both poverty and income inequality among the poor. 5-35 The Poverty and Development Indices by the UNDP: (There are five) Human Development Index (HDI) The Human Poverty Index (HPI) Two versions, HDI-1 and HDI-2.* Gender-related Development Index (GDI) Gender Empoverment Index (GEM) *We will focus on these two indices in more detail. 5-36 Source: UNDP [http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_Tech_Note_1.pdf] 1. HDI: 5-37 2. HPI-1: 3. HPI-2: 5-38 4. GDI 5-39 5. GEM: Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-40 5-41 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-42 5-43 Dualistic development and shifting Lorenz curves: some stylized typologies Traditional sector enrichment (see Figure 5.7) Modern sector enrichment (see Figure 5.8) Modern sector enlargement (see Figure 5.9) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-44 Figure 5.7 Improved Income Distribution under the Traditional-Sector Enrichment Growth Typology Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-45 Figure 5.8 Worsened Income Distribution under the Modern-Sector Enrichment Growth Typology Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-46 Figure 5.9 Crossing Lorenz Curves in the ModernSector Enlargement Growth Typology Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-47 Poverty, Inequality, and Social Welfare Kuznets’ inverted-U hypothesis Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-48 Figure 5.10 The “Inverted-U” Kuznets Curve Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-49 Table 5.2 Selected Income Distribution Estimate Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-50 Table 5.3 Income and Inequality in Selected Countries 5-51 Figure 5.11 Kuznets Curve with Latin American Countries Identified Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-52 Figure 5.12 Plot of Inequality Data for Selected Countries Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-53 Ters-U Kuramı ile ilgili Türk kaynaklı literatür azlığı Türkçe literatür azlığı Poverty, Inequality, and Social Welfare Growth and inequality Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-56 Figure 5.13 Long-Term Economic Growth and Income Inequality, 1965-1996 5-57 Figure 5.14 Change in Inequality in Selected Countries, with or without Growth Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-58 Absolute Poverty: Extent and Magnitude Extreme Poverty $1-a-day headcount shows some progress Incidence of extreme poverty is uneven Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-59 Table 5.4 Regional Poverty Incidence, 2004 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-60 Table 5.5 Poverty Incidence in Selected Countries Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-61 Table 5.5 Poverty Incidence in Selected Countries (continued) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-62 Absolute Poverty: Extent and Magnitude Growth and poverty Impact on per capita growth Limited saving and investment by rich in poor countries Impact on productivity Lack of home demand Incentives for public participation in the development process Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-63 Economic Characteristics of Poverty Groups Rural Poverty Women and poverty (See chapter 8 for more detail) Ethnic minorities, indigenous populations, and poverty Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-64 Table 5.6 Poverty: Rural versus Urban Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-65 Table 5.7 Indigenous Poverty in Latin America Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-66 The Range of Policy Options: Some Basic Considerations Areas of intervention Altering the functional distribution Mitigating the size distribution Moderating (reducing) the size distribution at upper levels Moderating (increasing) the size distribution at lower levels Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-67 The Range of Policy Options: Some Basic Considerations Policy options Changing relative factor prices Progressive redistribution of asset ownership Progressive taxation Transfer payments and public provision of goods and services Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-68 Tekrarlayalım! Mutlak yoksulluğun sonuçları Büyüme ve Yoksulluk K.B. GSMH üzerine etkiler Kısıtlı S ve I Üretim ve verimlilik üzerine etkiler İç talebin yetersizliği Kalkınma sürecine katılımın azlığı 5-69 Political approaches • Müdahale alanları nerelerde toplanabilir? – Affecting the functional distribution - Fonksiyonel dağılımın etkilenmesi – Altering the shares in distribution - Dağılımdaki payların değiştirilmesi – Loweing of shares belonging to upper level groups - Üst seviyelerdeki dağılımdan alınan payların azaltılması – Increasing the shares of the lower level groups- Düşük seviyelerdeki payların arttırılması 5-70 Summary and Conclusions: The Need for a Package of Policies Policies to correct factor price distortions Policies to change the distribution of assets, power, and access to education and associated employment opportunities Policies of progressive taxation and directed transfer payments Policies designed to build capabilities and human and social capital of the poor Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-71 “Çevresel” Kuznets Eğrisi • • • • • • • • • GSMH artışı ve çevre kirliliği ilişkisidir. (Bkz. Ekler kısmı.) The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesizes that the relationship between per capita income and the use of natural resources and/or the emission of wastes has an inverted U-shape. According to this specification, at relatively low levels of income the use of natural resources and/or the emission of wastes increase with income. Beyond some turning point, the use of the natural resources and/or the emission of wastes decline with income. Reasons for this inverted U-shaped relationship are hypothesized to include income-driven changes in: (1) the composition of production and/or consumption; (2) the preference for environmental quality; (3) institutions that are needed to internalize externalities; and/or (4) increasing returns to scale associated with pollution abatement. The term EKC is based on its similarity to the time-series pattern of income inequality described by Simon Kuznets in 1955. A 1992 World Bank Development Report made the notion of an EKC popular by suggesting that environmental degradation can be slowed by policies that protect the environment and promote economic development. Gelir eşitsizliği ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiden çıkarılan sonuçlar – Türkçe bir özet tekrar Kalkınma sürecinin ilk aşamalarında görece eşitsizliğin önemli ölçüde arttığı ancak daha sonraki aşamalarda bunun tersine döndüğü önermesini destekleyen güçlü bulgular vardır. Söz konusu önerme, ülke sayısını gelişmiş ülkelerle sınırlı tutsak da, gelişmekte olan ülkeleri de analizin içine katsak da aynı sonucu vermektedir. Kalkınma süreci içinde pek çok alt süreç gelir eşitsizliği ile ilgilidir ve aralarında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunabilir. Bu süreçler, üretim yapısındaki sektörel kaymalar, eğitime daha fazla katılımın sağlanması veya işgücünün niteliğindeki artış şeklinde olabilmekte ve özellikle kalkınma sürecinin daha sonraki aşamalarında görülen görece gelir eşitliğinin sağlanmasında açıklayıcı rol üstlenmektedir. Gelinen kalkınma düzeyinde, hızlı büyümenin beklenenden daha büyük bir gelir eşitsizliğine yol açacağı yolundaki önermeyi destekleyen sonuçlara ulaşılamamaktadır. Econometric Example 1 An econometric model applied to Turkish industries Aim: testing the environmental Kuznets Curve Sample: Turkey and some asian countries Çevre kirliliğinin, DYY ve sanayi üretimi aracılığı ile gelişmiş ülkelerden gelişmekte olan ülkelere aktarıldığını savunan ve literatürde “kirlilik sığınağı hipotezi” adı verilen görüş uygulamalı olarak sınanmıştır. Asya ülkeleri ve Türkiye’nin içinde bulunduğu bir gruba yönelik 1975-2006 dönemini kapsayan bir model. Uygulanan gevşek çevre politikalarında yeni düzenlemelere gereksinim olduğu göz ardı edilmemelidir. Bununla birlikte, diğer uygulamalı çalışmalarla paralellik gösteren iktisadi parametrelerin işaretleri yorumlandığında, imalat sanayinde yaratılan katma değer, kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurt içi hasıla arttıkça, CO2 salınımının da artmakta olduğu ifade edilebilir. Example 2: Shahbaz et.al. (2010) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-78 5-79 5-80 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-81 5-82 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-83 5-84 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Questions: What are the explanatory variables? Why are they included? What are the expected signs of coefficients? Why? Why did the researchers choose a log-log model? Why is the squared LGDP included to the model? Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-86 Long-Run Regression Results: Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-87 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-88 Granger Causality Tests 5-89 Short-Run Regression Results: Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-90 5-91 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-92 Case Study: Bangladesh Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-93 Concepts for Review Absolute poverty Factor-price distortions Asset ownership Factor share distribution Character of economic growth Deciles Disposable income Elasticity of factor substitution of income Factors of production Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index Functional distribution of income Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-94 Concepts for Review (cont’d) Gini coefficient Lorenz curve Headcount index Neoclassical price- Human Poverty Index Income inequality Indirect taxes Kuznets curve Land reform incentive model Personal distribution of income Poverty gap Progressive income tax Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-95 Concepts for Review (cont’d) Public consumption Quintiles Redistribution policies Regressive tax Size distribution of income Subsidy Workfare programs Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-96 Appendix 5.1: Appropriate Technology and Employment Generation: The Price Incentive Model Choice of techniques Factor Price distortions and appropriate technology Possibilities of Labor-Capital substitution Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-97 Figure A5.1.1 Choice of Techniques: The Price Incentive Model Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-98 Appendix 5.2: The Ahluwalia-Chenery Welfare Index Constructing poverty-weighted index of social welfare Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-99 Table A5.2.1 Income Distribution and Growth in the Twelve Selected Countries 5-100