3_ClimateAtlasStudies
Transkript
3_ClimateAtlasStudies
Climatology Division, TSMS Climate Atlas Studies Data were prepared, missing values were estimated, normals were calculated from 1971-2000 climatic period. Other Atlas Studies carried out by the other countries have been examined. USA, Naderland, Japan, Nordklim Atlas (Finland, İsland, Norway, Sweden ) ERA40 reanaliz data have been examined. EUMETSAT CMSAF satellite data have been examined.(TOA,SIS, CFC,HCP) Climate assesments of the city have been inserted into atlas. Extrem values have been added to the atlas. Joint studies have been carried out with Middle East Technical University and some parameters have been modeled by using secondary parameters under the ArcGIS by using Co-kriging and GWR tools. Geographic region maps have also been created. With above methods 679 maps have been created and ready to deliver to end-user. An interface program has been created with Delphi to show selected map. Person and institute interviewed Person, İnsitute • • • • • • • • • • • • Subject Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA, USA Climate Atlas, PRISM Finland Met Service, Nordklim Atlas Naderland Met Service KNMI Atlas JMA, Japan Met. Agency JRA-25 Atlas Engin Gem, İnfobiz, Co-kriging Doç. Zuhal Akyürek, METU, Co-kriging, GWR Murat Ataol, Doğa Derneği, Schreiber Doç. İhsan Çiçek, A.U. DTCF, Schreiber Prof. Ersoy Yıldırım, AÜZF, ANUSPLIN EUMETSAT, CM-SAF product Şenol Tunç, Teknokent, GEPA Project ESRI, İŞLEM Geostatistical analyse, Modeling builder Data were prepared, missing values were estimated, normals were calculated from 1971-2000 climatic period. Arhive studies statistical processes USA. Climate Atlas NOAA, and Oregon State University developed Parameter-regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Nordklim Atlas (Finland, İsland, Norway, Sweden ) 5 northic countries jointly prepared Nordklim atlas They used 5 independed variables to estimate temperature Lapserate Mean min elevation of 20km radius Distance from sea, Latitute Longitute JMA, Japan Meteorology Agency Atlas Naderland Climate Atlas ECMWF ERA40 Reanalyse data ERA40 verileri ile yapılan çalışmada; ERA40 2m sıcaklığı ile istasyon sıcaklıkları arasında -9.3 ile 6.4°C arasında farklar gözlenmiştir. Özellikle dağlık alanlarda negatif faklar yüksek iken; Doğu Karadeniz, Erzincan, Tunceli, Diyarbakır, Iğdır, Adana ve Antalya’da pozitif farkların yüksek olduğu gözlenmiştir. ERA40 Grid çözünürlükleri (125x125km) özellikle dağlık alanlarda Türkiye’yi temsilden uzaktır. CMSAF (SIS) SOLAR INCOMING SURFACE RADYASYON COMPARISON OF CMSAF SIS AND IN-SITU DATA CMSAF (SIS) product values is greather than in-situ observation (Actinograph) ArcGIS infrastructure studies • 6 maps have been created according to HGK regulations and one of them was choised. • The other layer such as SRTM500, Drop, Aspect, Slope, Sd-Grid, city, lakes, rivers etc. Have been prepared to use with original data. Base Map Modeling with Co-kriging Modeling with GWR Modeling Temperature with GWR Modeling of Radiation with Co-kriging Modeling of Radiation with GWR RMSE 13.06 Regional maps Atlas interface -40% 2008 -13% - 18% -26% -28% 2006 18% 9% 8%8% 2004 -5% 2002 -22% 2000 13% 3% 6% 0% 0% 1998 22% 20% 1996 41% 1994 -8% 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1948 Ankara Yıllık Toplam Yağış 1992 -14% 1990 - 39% 4%3% 1988 Ankara Yıllık Toplam Yağış Artma Azalma 1986 -2% -6% -7% - 11%- 8% -7% -13% -19% 1984 8% 1982 27% 1980 9% 1978 21% 1976 0,40 1974 10% 4% 0% -1% 1972 1970 24% 1968 1966 -35% -11% -18% 1964 0,60 1962 -2% -3% -2% -2% -4% -2% -4% -9%-10% -10% -10% -10% - 14% -18% -17% 1960 -17% -16% 1958 1% 1956 1954 -32% -34% 1952 5% 1950 5% 1946 2 1948 1944 1942 1940 1938 1936 1934 1932 1930 1928 y = 0,0071x + 11,491 1946 -0,60 -31%-29% -0,40 -33% -33% -36% -46% 1944 -2,0 -0,20 1942 0,0 1940 -1,0 0,20 1938 Ankara Ortalama Sıcaklık Sapması - Anomali1971-2000 ort. sıcaklık = 11.6°C 1936 1,0 200 1934 Doğrus al (Ortalam a s ıcaklık) 1932 10 1926 11 1930 12 yağış(mm ) 13 1928 2,0 1971-2000' densapma(% ) 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 R = 0,049 1926 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1992 14 1994 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1948 1946 1944 1942 1940 1938 1936 1934 1932 1930 1928 1926 Ort. sıcaklık (°C) Ankara Ortalama Sıcaklık Trendi - D.M.İ. 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 Ortalama s ıcaklık 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1948 1946 1944 1942 1940 1938 1936 1934 1932 1930 1928 1926 1971-2000'den sapma (°C) Climate assesments of the cities 700 y = 0,8425x + 344,46 R2 = 0,0676 600 500 400 300 51% 1971-2000 ort. yağış = 404mm 36% 30% 0,00 14% -4% - 8% -14% -20% - 24% -25% -38% MAP LİST MAP LİST Future works • Modeling precipitation with smallest (RMSE) and greater R2 • If R2 is smaller, Model will be improved by additional parameters. • Map projection will be converted to Lambert conformal conic • Produced maps will carry to ArcGIS Server • To issue atlas studies on the web • To issue papers. klimatoloji@dmi.gov.tr