1 BASIC APPROACH TO CLIMATE MONITORING
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1 BASIC APPROACH TO CLIMATE MONITORING
BASIC APPROACH TO CLIMATE MONITORING PRODUCTS AND CLIMATE MONITORING PRODUCTS IN WMO RA VI Mesut DEMIRCAN Geodesy and Photogrametry Engineer Turkish State Meteorological Service Agrometeorology and Climatological Observation Department Climate and Climate Change Division e-mail: mdemircan@dmi.gov.tr A. The Climate for Whose: Climate products, has different meanings for the users from every sector. For this reason, each user community tends to a different product. For example, scientists interested in such climate products which consist of climate variability from past to present, oscillation range and the extreme conditions, comparison of past, present and the future climate conditions. In this context, products; which shows oscillation and changes in climate, comparing with today's climate and long term normal as monthly and annual assessment in local and global scale with the standard time periods and what is the climate and climatic parameters from the beginning of the world, are used in scientific studies. Public and sectorial user community show more interest in another class of climate products such as seasonal and monthly forecasts and the secondary climate products such as cooling and heating degree days, heat index and drought and so on and they use these products for planning their works. For example, ‘What will happen’ is very important than ‘What happened’ for the energy sector to plan future energy use and agricultural sector to plan stages of agricultural production. However, sectors such as insurance especially interest in records of extreme weather events when they occurred. And also long term climate data are demanded by sectorial user while planning and building industrial plants, solar and wind energy farms, dams, airports and so on. This issue can be seen also in recommendations of Fifteenth session of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) “the Commission recommended the implementation of tools and services aimed at multiple stakeholders and for assisting with risk management. Tools and services should address long-term (strategic), seasonal (tactical) and short-term (operational) forecasting and the distinct differences between these services. Service delivery should assume a basic minimum access to ICT and should build up from the minimum in a progressive manner (paragraph 4.27 WMO-No. 1062)”. Prediction products of global and regional climate models are used mostly by scientists and decision-makers, governments, intergovernmental and international structures for one or more decadal planning (fig. 1). 1 Figure.11 Users for climate monitoring prooducts. B. The Climate Feeatures: B.1 Standard Periiod: In orderr to speak onn climate, first f of all, itt is required d to have ob bservations oof climate variables v and serries of obseerved climaate variablees. Reliablee data sets are neededd to make accurate climate analysis. Iff we make this analysiis on a larg ge scale succh as countrries, continents and the worrld, it needss to use thee standard pperiods, and i.e. obserrvations muust have a common c period. t early and mid18000's to today which It is onne of challeenges in cliimate analyyzes from the instrum mental observvations beg gan in, both the lack off global disttribution annd adequatee number of obserrvation stations and co ontinuously changing in measurem ment system ms. There arre useful studies to overcom me from theese difficullties to deriive climate data base such as treee rings, isotope techniquess etc. which h are methhods the paaleo-climato ology, and also data recovery r efforts, satellite clim matology, re-analysis r pproducts of forecasting g models. On the other handd, there aree difficultiees in using the standarrd periods due to the climate observaations have not begun at a same tim mes in every y country. Moreover, M oobservation network may nott be operateed and obserrvations maay be interru upted becau use of the ecconomic chaallenges, wars, annd politicall turmoil an nd so on. H However, th he standard d periods off 1961-1990 0, 19712000 orr 1981-20100 can be useed together with or sep parately acco ording to m most commo on period inside oof countries.. 2 hese standaard periods, it must be drawn attttention of National N In case of selectinng one of th Meteoroological Seervices to the t importaance of preeparing of a homogenneous data sets for selectedd period. Annother tool for normall’s data setss of the standard periood may be database d which dderived from m re-analyzeed data sets or model outputs o (fig. 2). Figure22. 1971-20000 average temperaturre of ERA4 40 re-analy ysis data seet of the European E Centre ffor Medium m-Term Weaather Forecaasts (ECMW WF) which has createdd for the Turrkey and differennces betweeen observattions. ERA A40 has beeen produced from di different sou urces of meteoroological obsservations by b the ECM MWF Integrrated Forecast System m (IFS) (whiich have 1,125° (~125km)) resolutio on and ttopography ranging from50m to 2500 0m for Turkey))(Demircan, M. and Friiends, 2011 ). Figure3. 1971-20000 average teemperature of Global Climate C Datta (WorldCllim) and diffferences betweenn predicted temperatures for Turkkey(which have h 30 arc second (~11km) resolu ution and topograp aphy ranging fro om 0–37730m forr Turkey y)(Global Climate Data; http://w www.worldcclim.org) (D Demircan, M M. and Frien nds, 2011). 3 B.2 Climate Products Features: While analyzing of a climate parameter; must be evaluated together with the normal period, the normal value, deviation of the normal value, the lowest and the highest value. For example, while analyzing temperatures of a month or a year, it can be seen normal trend in temperature but also it can consist of extreme cold or heat at same time. If we produce only temperature normal product we do not make a true assessment for temperature. Nevertheless, that appears in recent years, a month can be seen arid after heavy rains which fall down in one or two days with above normal. In today's general findings, while temperature and precipitation do not show an excessive increase in their normal, they show an increase in their extreme events (fig. 4). Figure4. Increase in average temperature, temperature variance and together (http://hottopic.co.nz/when-the-rain-comes/) C. Climate Products Training and Tools: Training of climate services personnel, it has got great importance for national and global climate observations and climate monitoring products. In this regard, WMO Regional Training Centers (WMO RTC) can be used to provide training for climate service of NHMSs. Through this training, climate monitoring products can gain a standard format in all NHMSs. In this process, WMO must take an active role both training of RTC trainer, supplying of training document to RTC and providing financial support to trainees in developing or least developed countries (fig.6). 4 n 7 June 20010 in WM MO RTC Figure66. Training course on Climate Appplications was held in Alanya Facility, Anntalya, Turk key by TSM MS. Today, there are many toolss that clim mate monito oring produ ucts can bee made witth them. Especiaally, prograams that prroduced undder the nam me of Geo ographic Innformation Systems (GIS), are more skilful s to make m simplle climate monitoring m products aas well as detailed productt through modelling. m WMO W mustt take an active role supplying s oof program and it’s G and trainingg to develooping or least developped countriies. There is large nuumber of GIS mappingg programss and modeel that leadss to producce maps in many diffeerent formaats. So it needs iddentificationn of the stan ndard formaat for digitall maps (fig.7). Figure77. Turkey temperature t e and moddelling tem mperature map m is prooduced by ArcGIS (Demirccan, M. andd Friends, 20 011). 5 D. Recommendations for Climate Products: 1 - National and global assessments must be done with comparing standard normal, and must be consisted extreme values since the beginning of the observation . 2 – To be used products and analysis by national and global users, presentation should be made with at least one UN official language as well as the national language. The second language should be preferably in English. 3 -It must be developed a common language between among climate services and users for climate monitoring products. CMPs must be promoted according to requirements of users such as mentioned in CAgM’s report “As for regional climate change and variability impacts, the Commission acknowledged the need to standardize and adopt climate impact assessments at a regional level in order to identify common issues and find common solutions and comparable results e.g., impact of high temperatures on emergence and growth cereal crops(paragraph 4.74 WMO-No. 1062)”. 4 - Monthly and yearly analysis should be made containing at least temperature, rainfall and extreme events with extreme values. Essential climate variables which are recommended by WMO may also be useful to the entire analysis. 5 - Climate products must be supported by secondary products such as climatic indices, heating and cooling degree days, heat index and drought. 6 - Monthly and annual climate monitoring products and reports must be shared immediately with the Regional Climate Centers (RCC). 7 - Monthly and seasonal climate forecasts should be done by climate service or RCC products can be used directly or with increasing the resolution of products. RCC and developed prediction centers must be take active role to support national climate services in their region and to help them to improve national climate forecast products. 8 - Global and regional climate models must be operated by RCC leadership and must be shared with the member countries. BIM, the member countries should assist efforts to increase the resolution for their own regions. 9 - Climate monitoring products must be serviced in digital map formats such as raster, netcdf or shape formats as well as picture format to users. So users can use easily in their own works. 6 mate Monitooring Prod ducts in WM MO RAVI: E. Clim There aare 50 mem mber countries in the W WMO VI. Regional R Association, w which are mostly m in Europe.. Internet sites of thesse countrie s were exaamined. It cannot c be rreached weebsite of 3countrries which are a Albania,, Lebanon aand Syria. During D the research, Gooogle translator was used if ccountries haave a website with onlyy their own language. E.1 Lan nguage: Inside oof these couuntries; 15 countries havve a website only in their own lannguage, 22 countries c have a w website in 2 languages, 6 countriees have a weebsite in 3 languages l an and 2 countrries have a websitte in 4 languuages (fig.8 8, 9). Figure.88 Languages are used in countries website. 7 Figure.99 Languages are used in countries website in WMO RA VI. E.2 CM MP’s Long Term T Perio od (Standarrd Period) in WMO RA R VI: Long teerm period (Standard Period) P for climate mo onitoring pro oducts are uused in cou untries is as follow ws. 3 counttries do not use the stanndard term.. 3 countries use 1961--1990 period d for the standardd period. 9 countries use u 1971-2 000 period for the staandard periood. 3 counttries use both as 1961-1990 and 1971-2 2000 periodds for the sttandard period. The staandard period of 22 countriees cannot bee identified from websiite (Fig. 10,, 11). Figure.110 Long terrm period fo or CMPs is uused in cou untries. 8 or CMPs is uused in cou untries webssite in WMO O RA VI. Figure.111 Long terrm period fo E.3 CM MP’s Produ ucts in WMO RA VI: Table, rreport, data,, graphic, map m and bullletin tools of CMPs arre used in ccountries website in WMO R RA VI. Tabble presentaation is usedd in 2 counttries. Reporrt is used inn 22 countriies. Data presentaation is useed in 22 countries. c G Graphic preesentation is i used in 29 countries. Map presentaation is usedd in 29 coun ntries. Bulleetin presentation is used in 4 count ntries (fig.12 2, 13). Figure.112 CMPs Prroducts are used in couuntries. 9 Figure.113 CMPs Prroducts are used in couuntries webssite in WMO O RA VI. E.4 Clim mate Variaables Presented in CM MP’s Produ ucts in WM MO RA VI: Temperrature, preciipitation, wiind, sunshinne duration,, radiation, snow are cllimate variaables and extremee events annd seasonal forecast arre presented d in countrries websitee in WMO RA VI. Temperrature is preesented in 30 3 countriess. Precipitattion is preseented in 299 countries. Wind is presenteed in 10 couuntries. Sun nshine durattion and rad diation are presented p inn 4 countriees. Snow is preseented in 3 countries. Humidity and Extrem me events are presentted in 5 co ountries. Seasonaal forecast is presented in 1 countrry (fig.14, 15). 10 CMPs Produ ucts in countries. Figure.114 Climate variables arre used in C Figure.115 Climate variables arre used in C CMPs Produ ucts in countries websitte in WMO RA VI. E.5 CM MP’s Produ ucts Samplees in WMO O RA VI: Spanishh Meteoroloogical Servicce (AEMET T) (http://w www.aemet.es/documentos/es/elcllima/datos_climat/resum menes_clim mat/anuales//res_anu al_clim__2010.pdf) 11 MET Climaate in 2010 Report R Figure.116 Temperaature graphic from AEM Figure.117 Temperaature and Prrecipitation maps from AEMET Climate in 20010 Report Norweggian Meteorrological Insstitute (http://m met.no/Klim ma/Klimastaatistikk/Klim manormalerr/?module=A Articles;actition=ArticleeFolder. publicO OpenFolder;ID=390) 12 Figure.117 Temperaature and Preecipitation m maps from No orway 13 Source: Demircan, M., Alan, I., Sensoy, S., Increasing resolution of temperature maps by using geographic information systems (GIS) and topography information,5th Atmospheric Science Symposium, 27-29 April 2011, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul – Turkey Robert J. H., Susan E. C., Juan L. P., Peter G. J. And Andy J., Very High Resolution Interpolated Climate Surfaces For Global Land Areas, International Journal of Climatology, Int. J. Climatol. 25: 1965–1978 (2005) Abridged Final Report with resolutions and recommendations (WMO-No. 1062), Fifteenth session of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM), 15 to 21 July 2010, Belo Horizonte, Brazil 14