Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman Now first of
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Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman Now first of
Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman Gold market contains a comprehensive process, which is a market for a commodity with different dynamics. On the other hand widely debates in our community recent days. In the words of JP Morgan, “Gold is money, everything else is credit.”, so gold is money and the best underlying asset. Accordingly, assess this asset is true subject of expertise. Both disregard Gold professionals, as well as not to knowing the dynamics of gold, only foresee in graph. In this study, we try to describe, affecting the price of gold in the short term and market dynamics 1) Market Makers Gold market makers consists on, the funds (managed money / hedge funds) and producers (Producers). (Of Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was delayed one week, every Friday, until Tuesday, explains the position.) Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) volatility of options traded in gold. (As it is known to increase volatility raises rates and gold prices fluctuate options are supported.) 2) Producers Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), indexed to World's Largest 30 Gold Producer’s Shares. 3) Central Banks Periodic attitude towards to quantitative easing by central banks. (For example, the arrival of a weak U.S. employment data, for this reason more monetary stimulus to increase the pressure on the Fed.) 4) Flow of Funds to Processor Countries Among the factors supporting the dollar price of gold, INR / USD(Indian Rupee) is at. Now first of all, we introduce to, how assess Gold market makers positions. When we look at the past movements of gold, Hedge funds are seeing is effective in the increase of prices and volatility. Hedge funds are always a single request at any time and volatility, ie, the change in direction of prices. But, producer’s purchases generally the formation of the bottom of is usually examined carefully. 1 Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman 1)Market Makers Source: <www.stockcharts.com> a)Funds Now is expressed on the chart, go to October 9 Spot Price: Closed at 1.755 usd/per ounce Hedge Funds, open interests:187.815 Hedge Funds, Long/Short: 17.40 (observed declines in the formation of the peak rises to 20 in the past, but not approved to academically.) Producers, Long/Short: 0.16 So, when Hedge Funds intrests rise, supports the Gold prices. From now, as for February 16, Spot Price: Closes is at “1.610 usd/per ounces” Hedge Funds, open interest:147.000 Hedge Funds, Long/Short:3.27 (interests of funds declines, prices is also.) Producers, Long/Short: 0.32 (On May 22 the formation of the bottom increased to 0.40) Since the past 17 weeks, producers positions, while the positions of the Fund is running low. Gold price increase did not see the reason for this is due to the funds suggests that prices may fall. At this stage, reductions in power may be set to wait for a manufacturer purchases. 2 Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman b) Option Market Source: <www.stockcharts.com> One of the dynamics that affect gold prices, options market is. Chicago Board of Exchange option transactions realized volatility measure, CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) as expressed in the graph. As can be seen in the short term is approaching the level of the 200-day moving average of 16.87. GVZ, gold falls on November 6, never made it on top of the 200-day moving average, gold prices downward pressure transition to this level can be amplified. 2)Producers 3 Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman Gold Producers to make predictions about the supply situation, a process that requires much more comprehensive and research. To see how things are going as a simple gold producers, World’s Largest 30 Gold Producer’s Shares indexed ETF, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) can follow. GDX over the past week, up to 6 months fell to the lowest level, "39.80" points closed. GDX's last 1 month summit is "46.00" level. Based on these data Short- Terms strategy might be to, Depending on the Gann If we look at the statistics, GDX is "41.40-39.80-38.70-37.80" zones, XAU / USD (Gold per ounce) for the "1.625-1.597-1.530-1.472" regions considered together. Gann 315’ support" 38.70 "in the short term as long as the region, under the back of 1530 would not be expected to withdraw. 3) Central Bank’s Policies Gold prices will determine the most effective central bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, no doubt. One the other hand, in Japan and soon in U.K., expansionary fiscal policies be considered as factors supporting the dollar price of gold. Source: <www.stockcharts.com> The great success of the new actions of Fed, to take control of the market to ensure the price of gold as well as providing a moral basis. Volatity chart shows it to us. These factors might be, 1) In September 2012, "an open-ended bill purchases" as a QE3. Each month, purchases $ 40 billion of MBS (Mortgage Backed Security). 2) In December 2012, "Range-Based Bill Purchase Programme" as a Evans Rule. As much as 6.5 per cent unemployment and inflation of 2% per month unlimited $ 45 billion purchase of bills. 3) Thus, monetary policy uncertainty has been eliminated. In 2012, when the future becomes uncertain brought directly to the open-ended bill purchases, is also carrot policy, time expired at different times, which would be extended continuously open to speculation, "Operation Twist" uncertainty raised above, a description of the actions performed. Thus, the removal of uncertainty, gold prices have been stabilized. The recent interest in gold funds is effective in this situation can be expressed weakening. 4 Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman 4) Flow of Funds to Processor Countries In this part of our study, the two largest consumers China and India will examine the gold. When we look at the shining star of Asia and the world's second largest economy, China's foreign exchange reserves, the level of 10%, which is far below the international average, we see that only 1.7% gold reserve, this thesis provides the most powerful evidences in long-term to Bulls of Gold. Positively affected by the price of gold in the short term, positive industrial production from China, growth is very closely related to the numeral. During the past week the Chinese New Year break, the data to support prices, can be effective in reducing the prices of gold. Gold consumption in India, mainly cause of personal purposes. For this reason Rupee against Dollar is highly may affects of Dollar price of Gold. The recent decline in gold prices, the depreciation against the dollar since February Rupee'nin 6 can be effective. The course can be a clue in terms of slowing the decline. CONCLUSION All of these dynamics in accordance with the course of gold in the short term in order to predict the need to monitor the results of sub-titles to be issued to summarize, 1) Fund Positions Producers (Producers), Long / Short: "0:32", considering the earlier formation of the bottom, 0.40-level declines may be set and monitored. 2) Options GVZ will pass the 200-day moving average level of 16.87. If increase of GVZ get accelerates, the decline of Gold prices accelerate. 3) Producers GDX, Gann 315 "support" 38.70 "zone should be monitored not be seen as a short-term support. Technical Levels When analyzing the price of gold dollars, past the peak 1928 USD / ounce, according to "1470 USD / oz" stands out as the level of support for the long-term upward trend. (1,625-1,5971,530-1,503 in support of other intermediate supports.) GDX, "41.40-39.80-38.70-37.80" zones, XAU / USD (Gold Ounce) for the "1.625-1.597-1.530-1.472" regions considered together. In the short term, Gann 315 "support" 38.70 "in the short term as long as the region, 1530 USD / ounce, the protection of expected. 5 Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman Supplement- Positions Commodity Exchange Inc. 9-Oct 16-Oct 23-Oct 30-Oct 6-Nov 13-Nov 20-Nov 27-Nov 4-Dec 11-Dec 18-Dec 24-Dec 31-Dec 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 5-Feb Managed Money(HF) Long Short L/S Open Intrests 177,644 10,171 17.46574 187,815 169,829 11,245 15.10262 181,074 159,412 12,776 12.47746 172,188 149,389 13,961 10.70045 163,350 128,668 13,499 9.531669 142,167 137,972 13,042 10.57905 151,014 147,339 11,400 12.92447 158,739 159,947 7,640 20.93547 167,587 134,304 15,559 8.631917 149,863 134,234 14,579 9.207353 148,813 130,786 22,755 5.747572 153,541 128,403 29,509 4.351317 157,912 124,967 27,848 4.487468 152,815 117,603 30,254 3.887188 147,857 118,437 27,333 4.333114 145,770 121,758 23,861 5.102804 145,619 111,076 34,575 3.21261 145,651 113,058 34,510 3.276094 147,568 Source: <www.cftc.gov> Long Producers Short L/S Open Intrests 41,908 258,562 0.162081 300,470 16-Oct 39,443 238,865 0.165127 278,308 23-Oct 40,928 232,022 0.176397 272,950 30-Oct 41,732 226,728 0.184062 268,460 44,160 211,709 0.208588 255,869 13-Nov 44,875 227,746 0.19704 272,621 20-Nov 44,224 233,033 0.189776 277,257 27-Nov 47,394 244,733 0.193656 292,127 48,256 223,187 0.216213 271,443 11-Dec 50,170 212,748 0.235819 262,918 18-Dec 50,213 199,985 0.251084 250,198 24-Dec 51,885 188,906 0.27466 240,791 31-Dec 50,991 186,493 0.27342 237,484 51,806 187,324 0.276558 239,130 15-Jan 52,729 188,070 0.280369 240,799 22-Jan 55,162 195,954 0.281505 251,116 29-Jan 49,831 184,696 0.2698 234,527 9-Oct 6-Nov 4-Dec 8-Jan 5-Feb 62,343 193,626 0.321976 Source: <www.cftc.gov> 255,969 6